Article · International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy · January 19, 2022
The Impact of Oil Prices on the Stock Market and Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Kazakhstan
Dinmukhamed Kelesbayev, Kundyz Myrzabekkyzy, Artur Bolganbayev, Sabit Baimaganbetov
Abstract
In this study, the relationship between KASE stock market closing prices and oil prices is analyzed using ADF and Zivot-Andrews' (1992) unit root tests and monthly data for the period of 2016-2021. First, the variables are tested for causality. Results show that there is a causal relationship between the real exchange rate and closing prices and between oil prices and the real exchange rate. The short-term effects of the variables are investigated using the VAR method. Results show that Brent crude oil prices have a positive effect on KASE closing prices, while the real exchange rate has a negative effect. In conclusion, changes in oil prices affect the formation of stock prices.
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