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Article · International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy · December 22, 2024

Analyzing the Effects of Oil Price Volatility on Agricultural Pricing and Outsourcing Dynamics: A Vector Autoregression Approach

Birzhan AGNIYAZOV, Sabit Baimaganbetov, Galimzhan A. Pazilov, Borash Myrzaliyev, D. A. Zhoshibayeva, A. Duisenbekuly

Sabit Baimaganbetov
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Abstract

The investigation delved into the dynamic interplay between oil price fluctuations and their ramifications on the pricing of agricultural products, employing the Vector Autoregression methodology. The dataset spanned 3 months, commencing from January 2010 and concluding in December 2022. Upon subjecting the data to an in-depth analysis, it was ascertained that it possesses a unit root, indicating an integrated order of one (I [1]), and achieves stationarity subsequent to the first-order differencing. The findings of the inquiry revealed that the paramount driver influencing agricultural product prices is the inherent volatility within the agricultural sector itself. Contrary to initial expectations, the impact of oil price fluctuations on agricultural prices was discerned to be comparatively modest. Intriguingly, the outcomes underscored that the preeminent factor contributing to fluctuations in agricultural product prices is the influence wielded by oil prices. This implies that alterations in oil prices exert a more pronounced effect on the variability in agricultural product prices as opposed to the overall revenue generated from agricultural endeavors.

Market Dynamics and VolatilityEconomics of Agriculture and Food MarketsAgricultural economics and policiesoil price volatilityagricultural pricesagricultural pricing

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