THE EFFECT OF CHANGING THE SHORELINE ON THE EAST RECREATION AREA OF ALAKOL LAKE (KAZAKHSTAN)

Abstract

The study aims to evaluate the dynamic coastal trends of Lake Alakol, Kazakhstan, using remote sensing and GIS technologies, focusing on shoreline erosion rates and their impact on the eastern recreational zone, a critical area for tourism development near the Kazakhstan-China border. Historical Landsat satellite imagery (1999–2023) was analyzed using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) in ArcGIS to calculate key shoreline change indicators, including Net Shoreline Movement (NSM), Shoreline Change Envelope (SCE), End Point Rate (EPR), and Linear Regression Rate (LRR). This approach enabled the quantification of long-term shoreline dynamics, identifying high-risk zones prone to erosion. The analysis revealed a significant average landward shoreline retreat of 89.1 meters over the study period. The eastern shore, particularly Zone A near the village of Kabanbay, exhibited the highest erosion rates (-14.18 m/year), posing a "very high" risk to recreational infrastructure and tourism activities. Other zones also showed moderate to high erosion risks, emphasizing the vulnerability of the eastern shoreline to environmental factors, such as wave activity and wind dynamics. These findings underscore the urgent need for proactive shoreline protection and sustainable coastal management practices to safeguard the region’s ecological and economic assets. The research highlights the critical importance of protecting Lake Alakol’s shoreline to ensure the long-term viability of tourism and recreational activities, which are central to regional development. Proactive measures, including the integration of advanced remote sensing technologies and eco-friendly shoreline reinforcement strategies, are essential for mitigating erosion risks. The findings also open opportunities for collaboration with neighboring regions, including China, in addressing shared environmental challenges. Continuous monitoring, stakeholder engagement, and alignment with sustainable tourism goals are imperative for balancing environmental conservation with socio-economic progress in the Alakol region.

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