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Article · Georisk Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards · July 7, 2019

Spatial distribution, variation and trend of five-day antecedent rainfall in Singapore

Harianto Budi Rahardjo, Mărgărit‐Mircea Nistor, Nurly Gofar, Alfrendo Satyanaga, Qin Xiaosheng, Sabrina C.Y. Ip

Alfrendo Satyanaga Nio
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Abstract

This paper presents the spatial distribution, variation and trend of 5-day antecedent rainfall in Singapore based on rainfall data from 22 meteorological stations. The effect of climate was analyzed by dividing the study period into three decades i.e. Decade 1: 1982–1991, Decade 2: 1992–2001 and Decade 3: 2002–2011. Kriging interpolation was used for rainfall mapping. The results show that spatial distribution of 5-day antecedent rainfall does not coincide with that of the annual rainfall. The maximum annual rainfall occurred in the northwestern side of Singapore. On the other hand, the maximum 5-day antecedent rainfall occurred in the north and northeastern sides. The results of this study suggest that the climate change has increased the amount of 5-day antecedent rainfall quite significantly, i.e. from 420.5 (1987) to 592.9 mm (2006), thus affecting the vulnerability of the area with respect to rainfall-induced slope failure. The analyses also showed that most of slope failures were located in the north and northeast of Singapore between December and earlier March. More slope failures were observed in Decade 3 as compared to Decades 1 and 2. In other words, the analysis confirmed that 5-day antecedent rainfall had affected the slope stability in Singapore.

Landslides and related hazardsPrecipitation Measurement and AnalysisGeotechnical Engineering and Analysisrainfall trendsspatial distribution of rainfallclimate change

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