Skip to content
DSML.KZ
Publications

Article · Applied Sciences · September 29, 2025

Probabilistic Analysis of Wedge Failures and Stability of Underground Workings with Combined Support Under Thrust Faulting Conditions

В.Ф. Демин, A. A. Kalinin, Надежда Ивановна Томилова, Aleksandr Tomilov, Natalya Mutovina, Assem Akpanbayeva

Natalya Mutovina
Open via DOIPDF

Abstract

Ensuring the stability of surrounding rock in underground excavations is a critical prerequisite for safe mining operations. This study examines the mechanisms of wedge failure formation and determines the performance of a combined support system (rock bolts + shotcrete) through probabilistic analysis. Field investigations in the Zhylandy ore field (Kazakhstan) included fracture mapping, rock mass quality assessment (RQD), fracture frequency (FF), and in situ stress measurements, which confirmed a thrust-faulting regime. Numerical modeling with Dips ver.8 and UnWedge ver.6 software (Rocscience) identified critical excavation orientations of 120° and 141° associated with maximum-volume wedge formation, as well as a “safe orientation window” of 70° ± 10°. The probabilistic analysis showed that rock bolts alone yield a factor of safety (FS) < 1.2, whereas the combined support system increases FS to 2.4–3.5, significantly reducing the likelihood of wedge failures. An adaptive framework integrating numerical modeling with intelligent monitoring (“monitor → update model → adjust support”) is proposed, allowing real-time adjustment of support parameters and optimization of material consumption. The practical significance of this work lies in providing design-ready recommendations for support selection and excavation orientation, contributing to accident prevention and sustainable mining operations.

Geomechanics and Mining EngineeringRock Mechanics and ModelingGeotechnical Engineering and Analysiswedge failurethrust faultingcombined support

More by Natalya Mutovina