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Article · Bulletin of Shakarim University Technical Sciences · July 29, 2026

MODEL FOR FORECASTING EDUCATIONAL PATHWAYS OF SCHOOL GRADUATES BASED ON DEMOGRAPHIC DATA AND BIG DATA ANALYTICS METHODS

A. Kulmagambetov, Yerbol Yerbayev, Gaukhar A. Kamalova, Assemgul Tynykulova, С.Б. Кашкинбаев

Yerbol Yerbayev
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Abstract

This study focuses on the development of a forecasting model for the distribution of school graduates across educational pathways based on demographic and socio-economic factors in the Republic of Kazakhstan. The relevance of the research is driven by the need for a scientific understanding of how graduates are allocated among different forms of further education under conditions of demographic change and transformation of the education system. The study is based on official statistical data for the period 1992– 2025, including indicators of birth rates, living standards, and the distribution of graduates across educational pathways (higher education, vocational education, studying abroad, and alternative forms of activity). To identify relationships between demographic and socio-economic variables and the choice of educational pathway, correlation analysis and analysis of variance (ANOVA) were applied. The results reveal statistically significant relationships between birth rates, population income levels, and the distribution of graduates across different educational directions. It is established that demographic fluctuations determine the volume of graduates, while socio-economic factors shape the structure of their educational choices. The proposed forecasting model enables the assessment of future demand for the education system and supports the development of evidence-based policy decisions in the field of education.

Education Systems and PolicyLabor Market and EducationSocioeconomic and Demographic Analysisschool graduateshigher educationvocational education

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