Methodology of interdisciplinary research of causes and effects of demographic processes

Abstract

The purpose of the study is the relevance of the article due to the errors that have occurred in scientific publications using mathematical methods in socio-economic research over the past ten years. In the context of the integrative nature of scientific knowledge, a detailed interdisciplinary research methodology of statistical and mathematical methods is presented, illustrated by a specific example of socio-economic research. Methodology – independent correlation coefficients of correlation-regression analysis were used to determine the cause-and-effect relationship of the average annual population trend of Almaty. The statistical significance of the regression model was checked using retro-forecasting. The value of the study – the importance of the article is that one of the methods of correlation analysis the procedure for using independent correlation coefficients to determine the causes and effects of demographic trends is shown. In addition, a specific procedure is provided in accordance with the principles of interdisciplinary research methodology. Research results – as a result of the study, the main demographic indicators of Almaty city the number of births and natural increase have a low contribution to the growth of the city's population, that is, demographic depopulation has occurred over the past 25 years. Based on statistical data, correlation analysis proved that the city's population is growing due to the internal migration flow of the country. One of the important factors regulating the city's population the regulation of higher education institutions and markets was proposed as a way to limit the flow of internal migration.

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