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Article · Economics & Sociology · September 30, 2026

Macroeconomic effects of renewable energy expansion in Kazakhstan: Scenario analysis using a recursive SAM-based CGE-style model

Zhansaya Temerbulatova, Bulat Mukhamediyev, Assem Kaliyeva, A. Zh. Smatayeva

Zhansaya Temerbulatova
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Abstract

This study assesses the macroeconomic effects of renewable energy expansion in Kazakhstan using a recursive SAM-based CGE-style scenario model calibrated on a 2024 Social Accounting Matrix constructed from official input–output tables. The model is implemented in GAMS and distinguishes conventional electricity generation from wind, solar, and small hydropower sectors. Three scenarios for 2024–2030 are examined: business-as-usual (BAU), moderate transition (MODERATE), and accelerated transition (ACCELERATED). The results indicate positive macroeconomic effects in all scenarios, with stronger outcomes under faster renewable energy expansion. By 2030, GDP reaches KZT 147.5 trillion in BAU, KZT 153.4 trillion in MODERATE, and KZT 162.8 trillion in ACCELERATED. Household income and consumption also increase, while the largest sectoral gains are concentrated in wind, solar, and small hydropower. Under the ACCELERATED scenario, renewable energy sector output exceeds the BAU level by about 159% by 2030, with additional positive effects in machinery and construction. The findings suggest that renewable energy expansion may support structural transformation, household income growth, and broader macroeconomic development in Kazakhstan. However, the results should be interpreted as scenario-based projections rather than forecasts, since the accelerated scenario combines faster renewable energy deployment with stronger investment and capital accumulation assumptions.

Renewable energy and sustainable power systemsEnergy, Environment, Economic GrowthClimate Change Policy and Economicsrenewable energy deploymentmacroeconomic effectsKazakhstan

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