Interpretable Ensemble Machine Learning for Liquefaction Risk Prediction

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive machine learning (ML) framework for predicting liquefaction risk, a crucial aspect of seismic hazard assessment. A benchmark geotechnical dataset with multi-dimensional input features was used to evaluate several ML classifiers, followed by hyperparameter optimization through stratified 5-fold cross-validation. Optimized models were combined into a soft Voting Ensemble to enhance stability and accuracy of liquefaction potential prediction. The proposed ensemble model achieved a mean accuracy of 90.12% and a recall of 97.23%, outperforming individual models in most folds. The ensemble’s effectiveness was further evidenced by its precision-recall (PR) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, with areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.962 and 0.931, respectively—closely matching those of the Gradient Boosting classifier, indicating comparable discriminatory performance. Additionally, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was conducted on the ensemble model to assess contributions of each geotechnical inputs to the predictions, revealing that normalized shear wave velocity (VS1) as the most influential variable in liquefaction prediction. The proposed framework demonstrates a robust, interpretable, and performance-consistent approach for liquefaction risk assessment.

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