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Article · Фтизиопульмонология · September 30, 2026

EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TUBERCULOSIS MORTALITY IN THE REGIONS OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN, 2020–2024

Nadira Aitambayeva, Altyn M. Aringazina, L. Nazarova, T. Abdirova, I. Tulebayeva, T. Popova

Nadira AitambayevaShnara Svetlanova
Open via DOIPDF

Abstract

Introduction:Tuberculosis remains an important public health problem despite substantial progress in diagnosis and treatment. National trends may conceal considerable regional differences in mortality, making territorial analysis important for tuberculosis control planning. Objective: To assess trends in tuberculosis mortality and describe regional differences in the Republic of Kazakhstan during 2020–2024. Materials and Methods: A retrospective descriptive and analytical epidemiological study was conducted using official aggregated statistics on tuberculosis mortality in Kazakhstan and its administrative regions for 2020–2024. Mortality rates per 100,000 population were analyzed using descriptive statistics, comparison of absolute changes, regional ranking, linear trend analysis, and two-factor analysis of variance. For ANOVA, only administrative units with complete five-year series were included; newly established regions with missing 2020–2021 values were excluded from this analysis. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05. Results: National tuberculosis mortality decreased from 1.9 per 100,000 population in 2020 to 1.0 per 100,000 in 2024, corresponding to a 47.4% reduction. Significant differences were observed between regions (F(16,64)=30.99; p<0.001) and years of observation (F(4,64)=30.57; p<0.001). The highest average mortality rates were recorded in North Kazakhstan (2.76 per 100,000), Karaganda (2.68 per 100,000), and East Kazakhstan (2.46 per 100,000). By 2024, the lowest rates were recorded in Turkestan region (0.2 per 100,000), Aktobe region (0.6 per 100,000), and Almaty region (0.6 per 100,000). Most regions demonstrated a decline during the study period, although the magnitude and stability of this decline varied. Discussion: The national decline in tuberculosis mortality was accompanied by persistent interregional heterogeneity. The consistently higher rates observed in several northern and eastern regions indicate that national averages alone do not fully reflect territorial differences in the tuberculosis burden. Interpretation of these differences requires consideration of demographic, healthcare, and socioeconomic characteristics that were not directly evaluated in the present study. Conclusion:Tuberculosis mortality in Kazakhstan declined substantially between 2020 and 2024, but significant regional differences persisted. Regional surveillance and targeted tuberculosis control measures should therefore complement national strategies, particularly in territories with consistently higher mortality rates.

Tuberculosis Research and EpidemiologyHIV, TB, and STIs EpidemiologyHealthcare Systems and Public Healthtuberculosis mortalityregional disparitiesmortality trends

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