Article · Atmosphere · February 24, 2026

Environmental Monitoring and Risk Assessment in Missile Stage Impact Zones Using Mapping Data and a Digital Passport Approach

Aliya Kalizhanova, Анар Утегенова, Yerlan Bekeshev, Murat Kunelbayev, Zhazira Zhumabekova

Abstract

This paper proposes an approach to digitizing the environmental passport for areas where detachable parts of launch vehicles fall in Kazakhstan based on an interactive geographic information system platform and smart maps. An example is considered for zone U-4 (“Ulytau” district of the “Karaganda” region), which includes the fall zones of “Soyuz” launch vehicle blocks (IZ 26, 32, 34, 42, 56). The natural and climatic factors and hazards of the territory are analyzed: the total area of the zones under consideration exceeds 4.1 million hectares, annual precipitation varies between 218 and 289 mm, strong winds of 5.0–6.8 m/s are characteristic, and a high level of fire hazard can develop within 6–7 days. Data on fires for 2021 are provided. For an integrated assessment, a normalized system criterion, environmental sustainability indicator (0–1), has been introduced, aggregating four groups of criteria (chemical, mechanical, pyrogenic, biota) with a breakdown of contributions and calculation of uncertainty (σ and 95% CI). The system criterion of environmental sustainability map identifies local ‘hot spots’ with levels of around 0.8–1.0, while the uncertainty map shows maximums of up to 0.12–0.14 (with background values of ~0.02–0.08), which increases the validity of management decisions on monitoring and reclamation.

Environmental Quality and PollutionEnvironmental and Industrial SafetyEnvironmental and Social Impact Assessmentslaunch vehicle debrisenvironmental risk assessmentsmart maps

Environmental Monitoring and Risk Assessment in Missile Stage Impact Zones Using Mapping Data and a Digital Passport Approach

Abstract

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