Econometric assessment of food price determinants: the case of Kazakhstan

Abstract

This research article examines the impact of key external economic factors on food security in Kazakhstan, particularly focusing on the dynamics of domestic food prices in relation to global economic fluctuations. The purpose of the study is to identify and empirically analyze significant external economic determinants influencing Kazakhstan’s food security, providing evidence-based insights for policymakers. The research methodology includes quantitative econometric methods, specifically ordinary least squares regression, correlation analysis, and principal component analysis, utilizing annual statistical data from 2010 to 2024. The study is comprehensive and covers macroeconomic indicators such as the national Food Price Index, exchange rates, global food prices, GDP per capita, and government agricultural expenditures. The main results of the study show that global food prices and national income levels significantly influence domestic food price stability, whereas the direct short-term effects of currency fluctuations and government agricultural expenditures are statistically less pronounced. The analysis of statistical data highlights Kazakhstan’s susceptibility to global economic shocks and logistical disruptions, underscoring the country’s vulnerability due to import dependency and currency volatility. The study contributes to the literature by systematically addressing external economic determinants of food security in the context of Kazakhstan, an aspect that remains relatively underexplored in previous research. The practical significance of this research lies in its capacity to inform policymakers and stakeholders on adaptive strategies for enhancing the resilience and sustainability of Kazakhstan’s food security framework in the face of increasing global uncertainties

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