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Article · International Journal of Innovative Research and Scientific Studies · August 19, 2025

Development of modules for an integrated GIS system for predicting impact zones of separating rocket stages

Aliya Kalizhanova, Анар Утегенова, Айнур Козбакова, Murat Kunelbayev, Serik Daruish

Murat Kunelbayev
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Abstract

The article presents a comprehensive approach to the development of modules for a multifunctional cartographic resource for predicting impact zones of separating parts of launch vehicles. The proposed solution is based on the integration of mathematical models, including ballistic, stochastic, and adaptive algorithms, with geographic information systems (GIS), which allows for highly accurate spatial risk analysis. The study developed the architecture of a software package that includes modules for collecting, processing, and visualizing data, as well as algorithms for generating thematic and geocognitive maps. Particular attention is paid to the possibility of further integration of the system with external information platforms meteorological services, digital twins, warning, and monitoring systems. The modeling conducted on various scenarios showed that the use of artificial intelligence and automated map generation can reduce the average forecast error to 60 meters and significantly increase the reliability of risk zone assessment. The results of the work can be used to improve the safety of space launches, support decision-making in emergency situations, as well as in territorial planning and environmental monitoring.

Safety and Risk ManagementDecision Support System ApplicationsGeographic Information Systems Studieslaunch vehicle debrisstochastic modelingadaptive algorithms

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