Comparative Reliability Analysis of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Swarm Based on Mathematical Models of Binary-State and Multi-State Systems

Abstract

A key aspect in evaluating the performance of a UAV or its swarm is reliability. The reliability is calculated based on various mathematical models. Traditionally, Binary-State System (BSS) models, which assess two states—operational and faulty—are employed. However, some studies suggest using a Multi-State System (MSS) model, which allows for a detailed analysis by considering multiple states beyond just operational and faulty. Both mathematical models allow for the evaluation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms based on availability, which is considered as a probability of swarm mission implementation. There is one more similar assessment computed based on MSS, which is named the probabilities of the performance level. There are not any recommendations for applications of these mathematical models and assessments for reliability analyses of UAV swarms. This paper introduces a comparative study on the availability of UAV swarms using both BSS and MSS models and the probability of performance levels of UAV swarms. This study provides quantitative and qualitative recommendations to exploit these mathematical models and assessments for UAV swarms according to computational complexity and informativeness. The comparative analysis shows that the evaluation of UAV swarm failure should be based on BSS, and the analysis of operation states should be implemented based on probabilities’ performance levels instead of swarm availability. These results are confirmed by quantitative and statistical examinations of UAV swarms of different types based on both BSS and MSS. The number of UAVs is changed from 2 to 20 in these examinations.

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