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Article · Bulletin of the National Engineering Academy of the Republic of Kazakhstan · December 30, 2022

Building a model and assessing the level of morbidity during the epidemic

Aigul Kubegenova, K. T. Iskakov, E. S. Kubegenov, Криворотько Ольга Игоревна

Айгуль Даулетовна Кубегенова
Open via DOIPDFDOI 10.47533/2020.1606-146x.197

Abstract

The article considers the effectiveness of methods of mathematical models and control over the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Kazakhstan. Data were obtained for a 10-year period of the incidence of HIV infection, a distribution schedule for the morbidity of the population was created and analyzed using the Statistica application software package. A model of HIV spread is considered taking into account the social adaptation of the population,a scheme of a probabilistic model is constructed and a system of probabilistic differential equations is used. The current direction of the strategy for combating HIV infection is largely determined by a scientifically based system for assessing the epidemiological state of HIV infection using mathematical models that can determine the patterns of the epidemiological process with great confidence and predict the expected level of morbidity. Currently, according to scientists, there are about 150 different forecasting methods, but in practice 15-20 types of these methods are most often used. One of the methods used in the majority are expert assessment, extrapolation, mathematical modeling, mixed forecasts. To date, the problem of HIV infection is one of the most important Kazakhstan consistently implements steps to curb the spread of HIV infection. The problems of combating HIV infection are included in the state program of healthcare development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2020-2025.

Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsHIV/AIDS Research and InterventionsCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesHIV/AIDS epidemicHIV transmission modelingHIV incidence

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