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Article · Ġylym ža̋ne bìlìm · September 30, 2025

ASSESSMENT OF THE CONDITION OF MORAINE LAKES IN REMOTE AREAS OF THE ILE-ALATAU USING REMOTE SENSING DATA

Madіna Sagat, Nurmakhambet Sydyk, «Ionosfera» Garden Partnership, Gulnara Iskaliyeva, «Ionosfera» Garden Partnership, Aibek Merekeyev

Alima Amangeldi
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Abstract

The territory of Almaty city faces a constant threat of seismic-related emergencies, which can trigger outbursts of high-mountain moraine lakes. In the Ile Alatau mountains, background temperature rise and intensive glacier melting have led to a 42% glacier area reduction in nearby river basins over the past 60 years and a 40% increase in moraine lake numbers over the past decade, significantly raising the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). To assess moraine lake conditions, remote sensing and bathymetric survey data were used. Monitoring was based on PlanetScope satellite imagery (August 20 – September 10, 2016–2023), analyzed using the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) at ~3 m resolution. A total of 154 moraine lakes were identified in the study area. Five potentially hazardous lakes with adjacent glaciers were selected for detailed analysis: Lake No. 13 bis, No. 6, No. 15, No. 5, and No. 2. Between 2016 and 2023, the maximum area growth rate reached 6.5%. Lake No. 13 bis expanded from 0.0373 km² to 0.0542 km², while its feeding glacier shrank from 1.035 km² to 0.872 km², with a melting rate of -2.3%. Lake area, volume, and depth data were used to derive an empirical volume–area relationship. Resulting volume–area plots showed determination coefficients reflecting high accuracy, with parameter error margins ranging from 2.27% to 15.3%. The study revealed notable changes in lake dynamics in Ile Alatau. These findings support the development of early warning measures to mitigate GLOF risks and enhance the safety of Almaty

Cryospheric studies and observationsLandslides and related hazardsGeology and Paleoclimatology Researchmoraine lakesglacial lake outburst floodsglacier melt

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